EURUSD Fundamental Analysis – 26-June-2024

The Euro dropped below the median line of the Bollinger band at $1.071 as investors analyzed new economic data and the monetary policy outlook before the first round of voting in the French legislative election on June 30. The recent Ifo survey in Germany showed a surprising drop in business confidence for June.

Inflation Trends in France, Spain, Italy

Looking at inflation, initial data for key economies like France, Spain, and Italy will be released this week. Spain’s annual inflation rate is expected to fall to 3.3% in June from 3.6% in May. Meanwhile, Italy’s consumer prices are forecasted to rise by 0.2% from the previous month, matching May’s increase.

French Election Sparks Investor Anxiety

Politically, investors are nervous about the French legislative election. President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap election has increased uncertainty. The election results, whether favoring Marine Le Pen’s far-right party or a leftist coalition, could significantly impact financial markets, especially if there are significant policy changes.

EURUSD Fundamental Analysis – 26-June-2024

The EUR/USD is trading slightly below $1.07, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data and the French legislative election on June 30.

The Ifo German business survey indicated a drop in business confidence, suggesting economic challenges in Germany. Inflation data from major Eurozone economies is expected to show mixed results. Spain’s inflation rate is projected to decrease, while Italy’s consumer prices are likely to see a modest increase.

Political uncertainty is a significant factor, with the French legislative election adding to market anxiety. The election’s outcome, especially if it leads to substantial policy changes, could profoundly impact the EUR/USD.

Overall, the EUR/USD is influenced by economic indicators and political events, with the potential for significant market movements depending on upcoming data and election results.

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